Clem Sunter, legendary futurist, strategist and visionary, spoke at a lunch assembly at Buitenverwagt estate on Thursday 24 June. Attending was two management team members from MySchool; seeking to learn and grow for the benefit of the business. Below are some key thoughts from the presentation, but is in no way the full scope of the discussion. 

Clem discusses the fact that one should look at the future like a fox (as opposed to a hedgehog). Foxes keep their eyes open, look around, interpret signals and adapt. Hedgehogs keep their eyes on the prize and walk straight towards it, regardless of what happens around them (running the risk of getting run over by a car...).

“The future is not predictable. Rather, adaptation allows you to survive the unpredictability.” Therefore, Clem does not try to predict the future 100% but rather evaluates various possible scenarios and then places probabilities on them happening. His probabilities are determined by certain “flags” that indicate whether the events are more likely to happen or not.

The games businesses play

Business is like a game – you should choose which one you play, and how you play it. You may be a first class badminton player, but you will never make decent money. If your business “plays” golf or basketball however (lucrative industries), and plays it well, you will make money.

The world has seen a long boom of over 25 years, thanks partly to the rise of the east. It was however inevitable that hard time would hit sooner or later

What are the possibilities for our future now?

1)      Hard times until 2015 – Clem give this a high (around 40%) possibility

Debt ratios have not changed as they should have. Rather than the banks being in debt, now the governments are in debt...

The “flag” that will increase the possibility of this happening: If debt continues to grow (and it is....)

2)      Back to recovery after 2012 – 20% possibility

Even when/if the economy recovers, the world economy will be very different. It will change in four big ways, and we will have to “play” differently

• Banks will be (and already are) more strictly regulated
• Credit is not accessible
• East equals the West in terms of economic weight
• New technology related to resources and how we use it will be required (after all China is experiencing an industrial revolution and we only have 90 years of oil left... new resources please!)

3)      UV: Ultra Violet scenario – 40% possibility

Some countries will experience a “U” curve (prolonged depression and slow recovery). This would include Europe

Others will show a “V” curve. This will include Brazil and Africa

What about South Africa?

We are one of the top 55 competitive countries, but we have to work hard to stay there and position ourselves as a top player amongst the other big and aggressive emerging markets.

We should have the following:

1. Inclusive leadership: unity and patriotism
2. Social harmony and cohesion
3. Correcting problems and leveraging pockets of excellence
4. Duologic economy (inward and outward looking)
5. Become the Gateway to Africa
6. Small business is our big business – empower the entrepreneur
7. A good quality of education at all levels to compete in the knowledge-intensive global game. This particularly applies to maths and science.
8. Competitive personal and company tax rates to discourage talented individuals and businesses moving to other countries.

Clem Sunter Gems from the day (he simply says the funiest things!)

1)      “George Bush is a 24 carat hedgehog”

2)      “For fox sake!”

3)      “May the fox be with you”

 Read more here http://www.mindofafox.com/the2010s.php